
Washington suspended countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate, but New Orleans DAP prices have moved only modestly and edged higher since. StoneX's Josh Linville says the US was already the cheapest major phosphate market, and global supply is constrained by China's export retreat and the closed Strait of Hormuz.
Producers can redirect tons to higher-paying markets, so duty relief does little to lower US phosphate prices while global supply stays tight.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.