
The rupee closed down 34 paise at 95.08 per dollar on September 9 after Brent crude futures rose above $100 a barrel for the first time in almost six weeks. Attacks on oil facilities and ships in West Asia threatened the already strained supply chain amid U.S.-Iran tensions.
Foreign equity outflows also weighed on the currency.
Crude above $100 widens India's import bill and raises inflation concerns, pushing USD/INR higher. Supply attacks in West Asia keep oil risk premiums elevated for oil importers.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.