
The rupee fell to 71.77 at its daily low on January 3 after a Soleimani airstrike in Baghdad lifted oil prices about 4%. Most emerging Asian currencies weakened and the Sensex fell about 150 points.
Oil price spikes raise India's import costs, since the country meets about 80% of its oil needs through imports, which weighs on the currency and local feed costs.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.