
The euro rebounded slightly on Wednesday from a 16-month low against the dollar but is still set for its biggest monthly loss of 2026. Expectations for an October Fed hike fell after weak US consumer confidence and job openings data, with the probability of a hold rising to 53%.
Shifting Fed expectations change the dollar's direction and therefore the dollar value of commodity prices, though the effect on feed markets is usually modest and short-lived.
After 359 past neutral macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 129 past neutral macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -0.5% to +0.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.