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Brazilian assets are becoming more volatile as the first round of the presidential election approaches, with a tight race driving rates and FX. Longer-term DI rates fell about 0.5 percentage point since mid-August, while the real held between R$5.10 and R$5.15 per dollar.
Election-driven swings in the real change the dollar cost of Brazilian exports, so they can shift the competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans, corn and meal against US supply.
valorinternational.globo.comVictor Rezende, Gabriel Caldeira, Arthur CagliariOct 1, 2026After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
