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ING's FX daily says pricing for an October Fed hike fell below 50% after weak US consumer sentiment and JOLTS job openings data. The dollar still rose, as rising long-dated yields kept weighing on risk sentiment and higher-beta currencies.
A stronger dollar makes US commodity exports more expensive for overseas buyers and can weigh on dollar-denominated grain and meal prices. Shifting Fed expectations keep the currency outlook volatile for importers.
think.ing.comFrantisek Taborsky, Francesco Pesole, Chris TurnerSep 30, 2026After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
