
The peso fell 0.6% to 18.68 per dollar on October 27 after rebounding from 18.54, as carry-trade positions unwound. Traders increased bets on a December Fed hike to 82%, and Mexico reported a September trade surplus of $1.07 billion.
Carry-trade unwinds and firmer US rate expectations strengthen the dollar, which tends to pressure US dollar-denominated grain and oilseed prices while raising the cost of imports for Mexican feed buyers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.