
The Panama Canal Authority will cut the Neopanamax maximum draft to 49.5 feet from July 3 as a precaution tied to possible El Niño development. Transit slot auction prices have risen to about US$400,000, and the authority does not expect major disruption before December.
Draft limits force partial loads and raise per-ton freight costs on Panama routes, which lifts US Gulf and grain export transport costs to Asia.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.