◂ Event Timeline

Dec 20, 2021DISEASEGlobal

Tissa

The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) urged countries to strengthen surveillance as African swine fever reached the Americas for the first time in almost 40 years. Support is being provided through the GF-TADs joint OIE and FAO initiative.

WHY IT MATTERS

ASF's arrival in the Americas raises the risk of pork supply disruption and trade restrictions, which can pressure hog prices and boost demand for substitute proteins and feed ingredients.

AFFECTSLean Hogs▲Soybean Meal◆

SOURCE
tissa.orgDec 20, 2021

Price reaction & history

Lean Hogs▲bullishSO FAR1d -0.3%5d +2.2%20d +2.3%

After 177 past bullish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

Apr 10, 2019ASF spreads to Tibet | 2019-04-10 | MEAT+POULTRY+7.3%
Jul 13, 2019Welcome to global CFO+10.6%
Apr 22, 2019A Vicious, Untreatable Killer Leaves China Guessing - The New York Times-0.6%
Apr 27, 2019Farming veteran warns China's pig crisis only getting worse | The Straits Times-1.3%
Aug 31, 2018Hog Traders Eye China's Swine Fever+7.0%

Soybean Meal◆neutralSO FAR1d +1.4%5d +7.3%20d +16.1%

After 98 past neutral disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.

Dec 10, 2018Iran Moves to Minimize Damage From Avian Flu+0.1%
Apr 30, 2018The continued threat of foreign animal diseases+0.3%
Mar 25, 2020Egg shortages linked to bird flu outbreak - Premium-3.2%
Mar 9, 2017Bird flu in Tennessee raises alert in Iowa and Nebraska+0.3%
Dec 7, 2017First global swine disease surveillance report issued-4.5%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Lean Hogs HOGS · GP ▸

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Soybean Meal SBM · GP ▸

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