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A Nature Communications study evaluates how well countries report outbreaks of high pathogenicity avian influenza (2020–2023) and African swine fever (2016–2023) to the WOAH. It uses fatalities at first notification as a performance measure, adjusted for premise and country factors.
Faster and more complete outbreak notification shapes how quickly trade restrictions are imposed and lifted, which affects poultry and pork export flows. The study itself does not move prices.
nature.comKim, Younjung, Fournié, Guillaume, Tizzani, Paolo, Torres, Gregorio, Métras, RaphaëlleMay 21, 2025After 645 past disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 615 past disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
