
An African swine fever outbreak was confirmed at a 1,100-pig farm in Hwaseong, Gyeonggi, raising South Korea's 2026 ASF case count to nine. Foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza were also reported ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, and the Prime Minister issued an emergency order.
ASF is spreading faster than in prior years and already exceeds last year's full-year total, which could lead to larger herd culls and reduced pork demand. Import restrictions tied to contaminated goods could also affect feed and meat trade flows.
After 117 past bearish disease events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.