
Indonesian industry forum InfoSAWIT said palm oil remains central to global food and biofuel supply, with about half of output coming from Indonesia. It said the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted sunflower oil supplies to many countries.
The article argues that this shortfall pushed up demand and prices for palm oil.
Lost sunflower oil supply makes palm oil a substitute, which supports its demand and price. The effect depends on how long sunflower supply stays constrained.
After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.