
Indonesia's 2024 crude palm oil domestic consumption is forecast to rise 9.08% to 25.40 million tonnes, driven by food, biodiesel and oleochemical demand. The trade ministry also set the February reference price at US$806.40/MT and reported Ganoderma stem rot affecting about 46.76 thousand hectares of smallholder plantations.
Rising domestic consumption reduces the export surplus available to world markets, supporting palm oil prices, while Ganoderma losses add modest supply risk.
After 149 past bullish report events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.