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Drewry says palm oil has held a price premium over soybean oil for over eight months because of tight supply, which has increased India's soybean oil imports. Declining palm oil exports have reduced short-haul vegoil trade while boosting long-haul soybean oil routes.
Palm output in Malaysia fell sharply after heavy rains and flooding, and Indonesia's rising biodiesel mandate is expected to keep palm prices volatile.
Sustained substitution toward soybean oil supports soyoil demand and lengthens vegoil shipping routes, which supports ocean freight. Persistent palm price premiums keep vegoil prices elevated.
drewry.co.ukJun 3, 2025After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 133 past bullish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.8% to +2.3%), and +1.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
