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Fastmarkets outlines 2026 palm oil drivers, expecting Indonesian output to recover by 1.5 to 2.0 million tonnes. It warns that government land seizures of 3.3 million hectares, including oil palm area transferred to PT Agrinas, could cut 2 to 5 million tonnes of CPO output.
Malaysia's planted area is stagnant and its yields are declining.
Possible output losses from land seizures in Indonesia and flat Malaysian supply could tighten the global palm oil balance, supporting prices against rising demand for food and fuel.
fastmarkets.comSathia VarqaJan 1, 2026After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
