Indonesia plan to centralise palm oil exports raises fears of supply disruption

After 548 past bullish policy events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jan 18, 2022Indonesia to require palm oil export permits | Reuters+2.6%
• Mar 9, 2022Indonesia tightens palm oil export curbs in new hit to global supplies | Reuters-2.3%
• May 23, 2022Indonesia policy uncertainty hampers resumption of palm oil exports | Reuters+1.8%
• Jan 2, 2023Indonesia to tighten palm oil exports to shore up supply ahead of Ramadan - Regulations - The Jakarta Post+4.8%
• Mar 18, 2025Indonesia to raise palm oil export levy to 4.5% to 10%, official says-0.2%

After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Mar 9, 2022Indonesia tightens palm oil export curbs in new hit to global supplies | Reuters-6.9%
• May 23, 2022Indonesia policy uncertainty hampers resumption of palm oil exports | Reuters-1.6%
• Jan 2, 2023Indonesia to tighten palm oil exports to shore up supply ahead of Ramadan - Regulations - The Jakarta Post-1.9%
• Mar 18, 2025Indonesia to raise palm oil export levy to 4.5% to 10%, official says+0.3%
• Feb 1, 2022Edible oil markets rally as Indonesia limits palm oil exports - Grain Central+1.1%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.