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BMI, the research arm of Fitch Group, warns that El Niño could cut Indonesian crude palm oil output through below-average rainfall and higher temperatures. It also flags that export levy revenue could fall if production weakens.
A likely drop in Indonesian palm output during a B50 rollout would tighten global vegetable oil supply and support prices, while the weather risk keeps CPO prices elevated.
bloombergtechnoz.comAzura Yumna Ramadani PurnamaAug 18, 2026After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
