Renewable diesel expansion is drawing vegetable oils and fats into fuel production at a pace comparable to ethanol's impact on corn. Analysts expect edible oil supplies would need to roughly double over the next decade, and about $2.6 billion is planned for North American crushing capacity within three years.
Sustained fuel-driven demand for vegetable oils and new crush capacity should keep soybean oil and soybean prices supported and pull more soybean crush domestically.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.