
EPA finalized Renewable Fuel Standard volumes for 2023, 2024 and 2025 with an unexpected change: it raised EIA's projections of obligated gasoline and diesel by 3.5 percent annually. The adjustment is tied to past discrepancies between projected and reported obligated volumes, and it works like small refinery exemptions granted after the final rule.
Higher obligated fuel volumes raise the required renewable volume, which supports biomass-based diesel demand and soybean oil use. That is supportive for soybean oil prices.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.