An economic study funded by the United Soybean Board found that EPA's proposed 50% RIN credit for imported biofuels and imported feedstocks would strengthen domestic soybean markets. The study modeled three scenarios under EPA's proposed 2026–2027 RFS volumes.
Reducing RIN credits for imported feedstock shifts biomass-based diesel sourcing toward U.S. soybean oil, supporting domestic crush and soybean oil prices.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.