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CoBank analyst Jacqui Fatka says the EPA's 2026-2027 renewable volume obligations, which rise 67% and 70% above the 2025 level of 5.42 billion gallons, will test whether refiners can ramp up blending. The industry is catching up after rule uncertainty, the end of the blenders tax credit, and the shift to the 45Z credit that excludes non-North American fuels.
Compliance data is due after the September 1, 2026 RIN retirement deadline.
Higher biomass-based diesel mandates pull more soybean oil and feedstock into biofuels, supporting soybean oil and oilseed values, while tight feedstock and RIN availability could raise compliance costs.
cobank.comJacqui FatkaJul 8, 2026After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
