
CoBank says the US still needs feedstock imports to meet an RVO of 8.86 billion RINs for biomass-based diesel. Soybean oil imports for 2025-26 reached 170,000 tonnes, above all of 2024-25, and ethanol exports are running 13% ahead of last year.
Import needs and rising biofuel feedstock use tighten the soybean oil balance and support prices. Stronger ethanol exports support demand for ethanol co-products.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.