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China is pursuing a national campaign to raise domestic soybean output as trade ties with the US deteriorate. Soybeans are a major source of animal feed protein, and China relies heavily on foreign suppliers.
Beijing sees food security as a long-standing priority.
Longer-term self-sufficiency efforts could reduce China's import demand for soybeans and meal, which is bearish for global soybean prices. Near-term effects are limited because domestic output cannot yet replace imports.
ft.comEleanor OlcottOct 19, 2023After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
