
CBOT May soybean futures spiked briefly after signs China may be resuming US soybean purchases, then closed down 0.042 per bushel at 11.28. Buyers may have contracted up to seven cargoes for April-May loading in the US Gulf, and US sales to China for the marketing year stood at 9.89mn t as of 29 January.
Renewed Chinese buying would tighten US export availability and support soybean prices. The conflicting official sales claims leave the durability of the demand uncertain.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.