
Soybeans edged higher on short covering after China reportedly exempted U.S. beans from a tariff increase ahead of the next round of talks in October. China bought 204,000 tons of new-crop U.S. beans.
A poll projected a record Brazilian soybean crop of 122.62 million tons.
Tariff relief and purchases support U.S. soybean export demand, but a record Brazilian crop caps the upside. Buyers should expect firm but range-bound soybean prices until the October talks.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.