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The USDA has begun using global exporters' data rather than Chinese customs data to estimate China's soybean imports. The change follows a growing gap between exporter shipment figures and Chinese customs records that emerged in 2023, and the USDA raised its 2022-23 China import estimate by 3.6%.
The revised methodology changes the baseline for China's soybean demand that drives global balance sheets and price expectations. The effect is a reset of estimates rather than a change in actual trade flows.
agriculture.comReutersMar 14, 2024After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
