Major currency pairs failed to break out after the Federal Reserve meeting, with Chair Warsh reiterating a commitment to price stability without signalling a rate increase. Markets priced about an 83% probability of a move.
Firm US rate expectations support the dollar, which tends to pressure dollar-denominated grain and meal prices and affect importer demand.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, EURUSD moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.