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Lawyers say a Ukraine conflict would destabilise Black Sea trade and that sanctions are likely. Grain and coal trade from Ukraine and the Black Sea region is at risk as tensions with Russia escalate.
The article provides limited quantitative detail.
Expected sanctions and trade disruption from the Black Sea would constrain grain export flows and support prices for wheat and corn, along with freight costs.
tradewindsnews.comHolly BirkettJan 28, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
