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Ukrainian farmers have about 20 million tonnes of grain they cannot move to world markets before the new harvest. Farmgate prices have roughly halved since the invasion, and sales have largely stopped.
Ukraine supplies 42% of traded sunflower oil, 16% of maize and 9% of wheat.
Trapped stocks keep world supply tight while local prices collapse, widening the gap between domestic and export prices. Exports resuming would release supply to importers and pull global prices down.
bbc.comStephanie HegartyMay 25, 2022After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 85 past bullish logistics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.7%), and +3.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
