
Up to a third of Ukraine's sunflower crushing capacity could be idled in 2022-23 because of power and water outages from Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. Estimates put the reduction at 28% to 44%, which would cut demand for 8 to 11.5 million tonnes of sunseed.
Traders also cited uncertainty over the grain corridor as a further constraint.
Lower crush capacity in Ukraine cuts sunflower meal output, tightening global meal supply and supporting prices, while sunseed may become more available for export.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 85 past bullish logistics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.7%), and +3.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.