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Economists from the University of Georgia and North Dakota State University found that 2021 ocean freight rate spikes did not immediately reduce US agricultural export volumes or producer prices. Their export share models predict those rates could let the US gain global market share in corn and soybeans over time.
Higher freight costs erode the competitiveness of distant origins, so sustained rate increases could shift export share toward US corn and soybeans and support US basis and export-linked prices.
world-grain.comMatt NoltemeyerMar 3, 2022After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 206 past bullish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
