CargoMetrics notes that Ukraine, Russia, Romania and Bulgaria account for 10-15% of global grain exports, mainly wheat, corn and barley. Its data show high week-on-week volatility in Ukrainian grain exports in early 2024, with a sharp positive deviation from the ten-year average.
Volatile Black Sea export flows keep traders sensitive to supply shocks in wheat, corn and barley, supporting price risk premiums.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.