
Russia set a wheat export record in 2023/24, with total exports exceeding 55.4 million tonnes, up about 24% from 2022/23 according to Rusagrotrans. Exports were supported by large harvests, high stocks and competitive prices, though an unofficial floor price limited competitiveness.
A record Russian export program adds large global wheat supply and pressures world prices. Floor pricing that limits competitiveness is a partial offset.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.