Ukraine's grain exports for the 2024-25 season (July-June) nearly doubled year-on-year to 12 million mt, per the agrarian ministry as of Oct. 21, with wheat exports up 80% to 7.2 million mt and corn up 18.3% to 3.8 million mt.
Exports rose via the Black Sea corridor despite Russian attacks on ports, while flows through Constanta fell 13%. Spain emerged as a leading destination.
Strong Ukrainian export flows add competitive supply to world wheat and corn markets, which caps price gains and weighs on feed grain costs for buyers.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.