Freight for 3,000-tonne wheat cargoes from the Azov-Black Sea region to Sea of Marmara ports fell to $47 per ton in week 46 as Turkish demand declined. Russia will more than double its wheat export tariff to 185.5 rubles per ton from November 12, while barley and corn tariffs stay at zero.
The doubled Russian wheat export tariff raises FOB costs and can reduce Russian wheat export competitiveness, supporting wheat prices, while lower freight reflects weaker regional demand.
After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.