In week 18 the Azov-Black Sea freight rate fell for a fourth straight week, with 3,000-tonne wheat cargoes from Azov to the Sea of Marmara fixed near $34/t. Export duties on wheat, barley and corn stayed at zero, and Baltic freight rates dropped EUR 1-3/t.
Falling freight rates lower the landed cost of Black Sea grain into Mediterranean feed markets, reinforcing export competitiveness. Seasonal weakness in old-crop demand keeps the downward pressure in place.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 284 past neutral logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.4%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.