
USDA attachés in Brasilia and Buenos Aires forecast Brazil's 2026-27 soybean crop at a record 184 million tonnes, up four million tonnes, on 50.5 million hectares. Brazil's soybean exports are projected to rise by 2.5 million tonnes to 117.5 million, and Argentina's ending stocks are larger than before.
A record Brazilian crop and larger Argentine stocks point to ample global soybean supply, which is bearish for soybean prices and export premiums.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 250 past neutral report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.