
A La Nina pattern is bringing drier-than-normal conditions to Argentina and Brazil. Southern Brazil from São Paulo to Rio Grande do Sul had its 7th to 9th driest first half of November in 30 years, and dryness is expected to continue.
Early-planted crops entering December pollination face yield risk.
Yield losses during pollination in Argentina and southern Brazil would tighten soybean and corn supplies and support prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.