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Brazil's safrinha corn crop could fall short because farmers plan less area than expected. Soybean planting delays and replanting push back corn sowing, while low domestic corn prices, slow seed sales and high cover-seed costs weaken farmer incentives.
A smaller safrinha crop, which supplies about three-quarters of Brazil's corn, would reduce export supply and support corn prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.