
Brazil's 2023/24 safrinha corn was 93% planted as of the prior week, ahead of 82% a year earlier, with planting nearly complete. Rainfall in south-central Brazil was 40% to 80% below average for two to three weeks, and a heat dome was forecast for parts of Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil.
Dry conditions during early vegetative growth in key safrinha areas raise the risk of yield losses, which would tighten Brazilian corn supply and support prices.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.