Brazil's safrinha corn was 97% planted as of mid-March 2025, closing the planting window. Conab cut safrinha acreage by 90,000 hectares to 16.74 million hectares and raised its 2024/25 Brazil corn estimate to 122.76 million tons, while USDA kept 126.0 million tons.
Dryness in south-central Brazil remains a concern.
Dry conditions in key south-central safrinha areas could cut Brazil's corn exports and tighten supply, supporting corn and DDGS prices if rains disappoint.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.