
Temperatures of 40°C or higher were recorded in at least ten Brazilian states over the weekend, with 38-43°C in Mato Grosso, Goias, Tocantins and Mato Grosso do Sul. Disappointing early soybean yields and hot, dry weather led to a lower soybean estimate this week.
Soybeans are 94% planted, according to AgRural.
Heat stress during pod filling could cut soybean yields in Brazil, the world's largest exporter. This supports soybean and meal prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.