
An extremely dry May left second-crop regions from northern Paraguay to interior Sao Paulo with almost no rain, adding losses especially in Mato Grosso do Sul. Mato Grosso harvest is starting with excellent productivity, and export movement remains too small to change domestic prices.
Losses in some second-crop areas are offset by strong Mato Grosso yields, so the net effect on export supply and prices is limited for now.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.