◂ Event Timeline

Nov 4, 2024WEATHERUS

Warm and Dry — But Enjoyable — October

Illinois averaged 58.6 degrees in October, 3.8 degrees above the 1991-2020 average. Precipitation totaled 0.96 inches, 2.30 inches below normal and the 10th driest October on record.

WHY IT MATTERS

Dry late-season conditions in Illinois, a major corn and soybean state, reinforce the yield losses already seen and add to concern about soil moisture going into 2025.

AFFECTSCORN▲SOY▲

SOURCE
stateclimatologist.web.illinois.eduTrent FordNov 4, 2024

Price reaction & history

CORN▲bullishSO FAR1d +0.4%5d +2.5%20d -0.9%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

Oct 7, 2025October Weather in Brazil - Hotter and Dryer Than Normal-1.7%
Jan 29, 2019Brazil Ends January Hot and Dry-0.4%
Oct 19, 2020Market Closes - October 19, 2020 - Kentucky Farm Bureau+2.7%
May 29, 2018Wheat prices are rising because of the hot and dry weather-3.7%
Oct 25, 2022Drought Status Update for the Midwest and Missouri River Basin | October 25, 2022 | Drought.gov-1.4%

SOY▲bullishSO FAR1d +0.5%5d +3.5%20d +0.3%

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

Oct 7, 2025October Weather in Brazil - Hotter and Dryer Than Normal-1.0%
Jan 29, 2019Brazil Ends January Hot and Dry-0.5%
Oct 19, 2020Market Closes - October 19, 2020 - Kentucky Farm Bureau+3.2%
Oct 24, 2023Ahead of the Open | October 24, 2023 - Pro Farmer-0.3%
Aug 24, 2023More wheat and barley, but lower oat stocks at end-June: Grain market daily | AHDB+1.6%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

CORN · GP ▸

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SOY · GP ▸

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