
A producer outlook for 2025/26 flags a forecast hot, dry summer for the western Corn Belt and Plains. It also cites uncertainty over planted acreage, the expiring U.S.-China tariff deal, and growing Brazilian soybean competition.
Dryness risk and tight global corn stocks support corn prices, while tariff uncertainty and Brazil's export pressure cap soybean upside.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.