Loading…
NIDIS reported rapid expansion of abnormally dry and moderate-to-severe drought across Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, with dry conditions in central Michigan since fall 2024. Low Ohio River flows led the U.S. Coast Guard to impose tow width and weight restrictions on the Mississippi south of Cairo, Illinois.
Drought is expected to persist through September and spread further across the central Midwest.
Low river levels restrict barge loads and raise freight costs for moving grain and meal down the Mississippi, which can widen basis and weigh on Midwest cash prices while supporting barge freight. Drought stress during pod-fill also threatens soybean and corn yields in the region.
drought.govSep 4, 2025Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 285 past bullish logistics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 206 past bullish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
