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Cattle prices and speculative positions reached record highs in early February on tight supply and trade disruptions. USDA has halted Mexican feeder cattle imports, and the US was set to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Tight supply supports cattle prices, but the threatened tariffs and import halt raise the risk of a sharp reversal if trade flows change.
beefmagazine.comTrey FreemanFeb 4, 2025After 78 past bullish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.2%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 47 past bullish trade events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
