University of Missouri researchers warn that continued restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle imports could raise US beef prices and reduce domestic production through 2031. FAPRI scenarios range from imports recovering above 1.2 million head a year to remaining near 330,000 head.
Prolonged import restrictions would keep US cattle supplies tight and support beef and cattle prices. The outcome depends on how quickly the border reopens.
After 78 past bullish trade events, LCATTLE moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.2%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 47 past bullish trade events, FCATTLE moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.0%), and +1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.