
Australian port phosphorus fertilizer prices were about A$1480/t, and analysts warned they could exceed A$1500/t by autumn 2022 at peak demand. The Chinese phosphate export ban forces Australia to source from Morocco, which carries higher freight costs and longer lead times.
The loss of Chinese phosphate supply shifts Australian buying to distant Moroccan origins, raising freight and landed costs. Tight phosphate supply supports DAP and TSP prices.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.