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FCC's May 2021 update says its price forecasts for grains, oilseeds and pulses have improved since February, with old-crop prices flat or higher and new-crop prices above their five-year average. Global wheat stocks are projected to fall 4.5 million tons from the previous year's record, and U.S. ending stocks continue to decline from their 2016-17 high.
China's feed and residual use is forecast at a record 40 million tons, and U.S. wheat plantings are very low.
Tightening stocks and record Chinese feed demand support higher grain and oilseed prices, which raises feed input costs for buyers. Profitability for growers stays positive, so supply response is limited in the near term.
fcc-fac.caMay 4, 2021After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
